Inergy Watkins Glen Seneca Lake -- Images of possible blast scenarios:

Images of possible blast scenarios.
These are useful to see the energy only, not
the actual shape of the blast, which could have far worse

potential due to LNG/LP/propane being heavier than air.

This is ~0.16 kt

0.16 kt from Nukemap:

Here is 1.6kt: Thermal zone scorches across Rt 14.

This could leave a crater:

Here is a really big explosion, about 16kt. This is the size of one Hiroshima bomb.

20 PSI overpressure zone reaches across Rt 14. Thermal "firestorm"

reaches nearly across the lake:

This could leave a BIG crater:

So here is the really scary thing...  I have done calculations of blast potential
of just the 2.1 M gal storage of NGL. I believe this may refer to the Arlington Facility.
So this does not include the LPG storage.

I got ~140x Hiroshima bombs.  NOTE:  I still do not have 100% confidence in these numbers, but should have these verified in a day or 2.

Here is the Nukemap of 140x Hiroshimas. The grey circle is 4.6 psi overpressure, most buildings collapse. Injuries universal, fatalities widespread.  The outer orange circle is thermal radiation: 320 sq. miles: Third degree burns to all exposed skin, fires started in flammable materials, contributes to "firestorm".

I am working on more images, one possible scenario is a spill at the train bridge, so

LPG would go straight to WG, and a spark could incinerate the entire village.

I agree with Ross that we need Sandia National Labs to do computer modeling of these
events, because we just guessing. This requires sophisticated computer models.

BH

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