My question was: "How many Marcellus wells are projected for NY?"
Thanks to everyone who sent me data.
I have compiled the results here.Thanks to everyone who sent me data.
Estimates range from 42,000 to 123,000 Marcellus wells.
An industry source says that 81,000 wells
for both Marcellus and Utica is "very conservative".
ESTIMATE #1: 48,000 Marcellus wells:
Source: rdsgeis Sept 2011: Executive Summary, p4
The Department has determined, based on industry projections, that it may receive applications to drill approximately 1,700 - 2,500 horizontal and vertical wells for development of the Marcellus Shale by high-volume hydraulic fracturing during a "peak development" year. An average year may see 1,600 or more applications. Development of the Marcellus Shale in New York may occur over a 30-year period.
DERIVED: 1,600 x 30 years = 48,000 wells. (MEAN ESTIMATE)
DERIVED: 1,600 x 30 years = 48,000 wells. (MEAN ESTIMATE)
ESTIMATE #2: 42,126 Marcellus wells
Source: rdSGEIS direct quote page 6-209 Sept 2011
- Total Wells Constructed (year 1-30)
Low: 10,532 Average 42,126 MEAN EST. high= 73,720 (DERIVED)
- Max number of new wells developed per year (year 10-30)
Low: 413 Average 1,652
ESTIMATE #3: 123,414 Marcellus wells:
Source: DERIVED from NYS DEC rdSGEIS + AP article by Mary Esch:
GIVEN: rdSGEIS 3-3 "current information suggests that 6 to 10 wells per pad is the likely distribution"
Assuming 6 wells/pad low estimate:
"20,569 square miles beneath 23 counties across the southern half of New York"
Mary Esch, AP: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/13/gas-drillers-new-york-marcellus_n_1511849.html
DERIVED: 1 pad per square mile (assuming 640 acre ideal spacing units)
x 20,569 * 6 wells/pad = 123,414 (Using 6 wells/pad is a LOW ESTIMATE)
Assuming 6 wells/pad low estimate:
"20,569 square miles beneath 23 counties across the southern half of New York"
Mary Esch, AP: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/13/gas-drillers-new-york-marcellus_n_1511849.html
DERIVED: 1 pad per square mile (assuming 640 acre ideal spacing units)
x 20,569 * 6 wells/pad = 123,414 (Using 6 wells/pad is a LOW ESTIMATE)
Estimate #4: 112,500 Marcellus Wells
Source: NYC DEP, rdSGEIS
New York's portion of the Marcellus Shale is approximately 18,750 square miles
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/news/natural_gas_drilling_overview.shtml
DERIVED 1 pad per square mile (assuming ideal spacing units) x 18,750 * 6 wells/pad = 112,500 (LOW ESTIMATE)
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/news/natural_gas_drilling_overview.shtml
DERIVED 1 pad per square mile (assuming ideal spacing units) x 18,750 * 6 wells/pad = 112,500 (LOW ESTIMATE)
Estimate #5: 90,000 wells in 30 years.
Source: NY Times
30,000 Marcellus wells in 10 years:
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/07/08/08climatewire-big-money-drives-up-the-betting-on-the-marce-22075.html?pagewanted=all
DERIVED 90,000 wells in 30 years
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/07/08/08climatewire-big-money-drives-up-the-betting-on-the-marce-22075.html?pagewanted=all
DERIVED 90,000 wells in 30 years
Estimate #6: 81,000 Marcellus + Utica wells.
Source: Petro Enterprises, Inc, "Economic Uplift from Marcellus-Utica Development in New York State"
"In our most conservative estimates, total development of the Marcellus and Utica are projected to cover an area of about 13,500 square miles. Using a very conservative estimate in well spacing, we anticipate 81,000 wells will be drilled and completed in that area."
-- Petro Enterprises "Economic Uplift from Marcellus-Utica Development in New York State"
http://twintlc.com/Documents/nysupliftstudyR.pdf
(expired link... check Archive.org, JLCNY , or my Scribd for this document)
-- Petro Enterprises "Economic Uplift from Marcellus-Utica Development in New York State"
http://twintlc.com/Documents/nysupliftstudyR.pdf
(expired link... check Archive.org, JLCNY , or my Scribd for this document)
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be happy and free from suffering :)
-- ancient Buddhist Prayer (Metta)
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