How many Marcellus wells projected for NY? (News Analysis)

My question was: "How many Marcellus wells are projected for NY?"

Thanks to everyone who sent me data.

I have compiled the results here.

Estimates range from 42,000 to 123,000 Marcellus wells.

An industry source says that 81,000 wells
for both Marcellus and Utica is "very conservative".

ESTIMATE #1: 48,000 Marcellus wells:
Source: rdsgeis Sept 2011: Executive Summary, p4

The Department has determined, based on industry projections, that it may receive applications to drill  approximately 1,700 - 2,500 horizontal and vertical wells for development of the Marcellus Shale by high-volume hydraulic fracturing during a "peak development" year. An average year may see 1,600 or more applications. Development of the Marcellus Shale in New York may occur over a 30-year period.
DERIVED: 1,600 x 30 years = 48,000 wells. (MEAN ESTIMATE)

ESTIMATE #2: 42,126 Marcellus wells
Source: rdSGEIS direct quote page 6-209 Sept 2011

• Total Wells Constructed  (year 1-30)
  Low: 10,532 Average 42,126 MEAN EST. high= 73,720 (DERIVED)
  
• Max number of new wells developed per year (year 10-30)
  Low: 413   Average 1,652

ESTIMATE #3: 123,414 Marcellus wells:
Source: DERIVED from NYS DEC rdSGEIS + AP article by Mary Esch:

GIVEN: rdSGEIS 3-3 "current information suggests that 6 to 10 wells per pad is the likely distribution"

Assuming 6 wells/pad low estimate:
"20,569 square miles beneath 23 counties across the southern half of New York"
Mary Esch, AP:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/13/gas-drillers-new-york-marcellus_n_1511849.html
DERIVED: 1 pad per square mile (assuming 640 acre ideal spacing units)
x 20,569 * 6 wells/pad  = 123,414 (Using 6 wells/pad is a LOW ESTIMATE)

Estimate #4: 112,500 Marcellus Wells
Source: NYC DEP, rdSGEIS

New York's portion of the Marcellus Shale is approximately 18,750 square miles
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/news/natural_gas_drilling_overview.shtml
DERIVED 1 pad per square mile (assuming ideal spacing units) x 18,750 * 6 wells/pad  = 112,500 (LOW ESTIMATE)

Estimate #5: 90,000 wells in 30 years.
Source: NY Times

30,000 Marcellus wells in 10 years:
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/07/08/08climatewire-big-money-drives-up-the-betting-on-the-marce-22075.html?pagewanted=all
DERIVED 90,000 wells in 30 years

Estimate #6: 81,000 Marcellus + Utica wells.
Source: Petro Enterprises, Inc, "Economic Uplift from Marcellus-Utica Development in New York State"

"In our most conservative estimates, total development of the Marcellus and Utica are projected to cover an area of about 13,500 square miles. Using a very conservative estimate in well spacing, we anticipate 81,000 wells will be drilled and completed in that area."

-- Petro Enterprises "Economic Uplift from Marcellus-Utica Development in New York State"
http://twintlc.com/Documents/nysupliftstudyR.pdf

(expired link...  check Archive.org, JLCNY , or my Scribd for this document)

--
--
May you, and all beings
be happy and free from suffering :)
-- ancient Buddhist Prayer (Metta)