Tuesday, November 22, 2016

New Graphics about AIM, Indian Point, PIR and INCREASED RISK of failure near compressor stations.

This email is OK for public distribution. No need to ask, just share it.

As some of you know, I've been on a mission to calibrate the federal PIR formula-

I have collected data on 7 major accidents to date::
  • Edison NJ 3/23/1994
  • Carlsbad NM 8/19/2000
  • Appomattox VA 9/14/2008
  • Cleburne TX 6/7/2010
  • San Bruno, CA 9/9/2010
  • Sissonville WV 12/11/2012
  • Salem PA 4/29/2016

The data I need are, Diameter, MAOP, and some evidence, a PAR, CAO, aerial photos, news accounts, etc. where I can get an idea the extent of the impacts.  

I just found data on another accident, Unityville PA, 6/2/15. This one was different, as there were mixed reports as to whether there was a fire or not.  However there was severe discoloration of 
surrounding vegetation. 

Two things to note. EVEN WHEN THERE IS NO FIRE, this accident still had impacts at 733'ft, well outside the predicted PIR of 574 ft. (24" @ 1200 MAOP). 

Considering only those accidents where were spontaneous failures (discarding Cleburne, as it was caused by a strike with drilling equipment): I am left with 7. Of these, 5 (71%) occurred within 4 miles of the nearest upstream compressor. 

I have not seen this metric discussed on this list as indicating elevated risk. 

Here is a graphic. Note the Y-axis is a log scale, so each division represents a 10x jump.  

​Note for reference I have included Indian Point in Westchester Co NY, which is not only 4 miles from the nearest upstream compressor, but also has structures important to safety which are just 105'ft from the new 42" Algonquin AIM pipeline. : 

Note also there there are EXISTING aging gas lines which run through Indian Point which are both 50+ years old.

Spectra Energy has failed several attempts at the HDD pull of the big new 42"in under the Hudson, so they want to test the rest of the new pipeline by pushing 25% more gas through the existing rusty lines. Yes, and without increasing MAOP! (Nice magic trick).

Slide from NRC presentation showing the new AIM (green) and the existing lines (blue):

Here is a map showing my "better PIR circles" here:
(My online calculator and explanation here:)

The RED is the circle where I expect all Major Impacts to occur within.
I define a major impact as major damage or complete loss of structures,
scorched earth, death or severe injuries.

The ORANGE circles are what I call the Minor Impact Radius, which is where I would expect to find all minor impacts, like melted siding or other structural damage which could result in insurance claim.

All of this is based on historical data.

Notice that BOTH THE OLD AND THE NEW pipelines have their MAJOR IMPACT CIRCLES intersecting with the Indian Point Facility with the old pipelines being WORSE (covering a larger area including both reactors, control room, etc).  From a Risk Management perspective, this is REALLY REALLY STUPID.

​This Indian Point situation is EXTREMELY GRAVE. I urge everyone to get involved in
the resistance movement. There are literally 20 Million Lives at risk. IMO, we need
a "Standing Rock" type response here in NY to this INSANITY.

Related Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzz4sq66wuI

Another video, my Magnum Opus is coming shortly. I've been working on
this for nearly 3 weeks. 

(I would be working on this full time until I complete it, but I have to bill some hours at my day-job to keep a roof over my head and some noodles in my belly. If you appreciate my work, now is a good time for a Paypal donation:  TinyURL.com/DonateToBillHuston Thanks.)


May you, and all beings
be happy and free from suffering :)
-- ancient Buddhist Prayer (Metta)

No comments: