Monday, March 31, 2014

How many PA wells to fill the Constitution Pipeline? (2 estimates from experts)

Executive Summary:

The CP will require ~110 new wells drilled initially in NE PA,
and then will demand an additional ~80 wells per year,
just to keep production flat at 650,000 Dth/day.

This is a conservative estimate, likely to be more/higher number
esp. as time progresses.

The Draft EIS DOES NOT take the impacts of these wells into account,
nor does it even estimate how many additional wells would be required!

Detailed Narrative

I have examined production data
from Pennsylvania DEP
supplied to me by Jerry Acton.

These data suggest the number of wells required
to supply 650,000 Dth/day
(the capacity of Constitution Pipeline)
in the first year is

110 new wells -> required to fill
   Constitution Pipeline in the
   first year of operation.

This assumes a typical NE-PA "Cabot" well.

But this is a rather difficult question to answer
due to well decline rates.

So this is a "best guess-timate".

I also posed the question to Leland Snyder,
who examined the same dataset,
and came up with at least 80 new wells each year
to sustain 650k Dth/d.

Since 80 % of any well is gone after ~1-2 years
this makes sense.

110 * 80% = 88. 
Let's be conservative and call it 80.

80 new wells, put online every year,
just to sustain production capacity of CP.

This DOES NOT INCLUDE production losses due to field decline.
Thus, it is likely and even certain this number will rise over time

NOTE WELL: these numbers are estimates only.
But I believe these are very close to truth.

When the wells move up into NY,
because they are lower productivity,
they will have to drill many more to sustain
their "firm transport" contracts.

When the economic conditions are right,
NY will get fracked.
Bob Nied and Chip Northrup agree on this point.

So instead of 80 PA Cabot wells,
it could be 150-200 Oneonta-area Utica wells PER YEAR
This is required just to keep production flat.

Remember, the field is always in decline,
because they drill the sweet spot first
in order to satisfy their investors.

So these 80 new wells to fill Constitution
is IN ADDITION to the wells that Cabot is already
drilling in NEPA which they have found other methods
to get rid of.

Do your own queries on PA DEP production database:

Leland has an amazing tool online
which lets you query the PA Spuds database (and others)
using simple SQL queries.

Let's say you want to query Cabot Oil and Gas' production data
in Susquehanna, Bradford, and Lycoming County.

Just cut and paste the contents of this file:

Into this form:

May you, and all beings
be happy and free from suffering :)
-- ancient Buddhist Prayer (Metta)

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