Here is a response I got from Jon Campbell about my blog challenging his assertion that 400 wells per county is an "unlikely assumption" for the 28 NY counties sitting over the Marcellus.
http://williamahuston.blogspot.com/2013/05/factcheckgannettis400wellscounty.html
Hi Bill,
Thanks for this, but you're completely misinterpreting/
misrepresenting
my words.
The 400 wells per county figure in the Empire Center report
is over a fouryear period, not the life cycle of the Marcellus.
I added
that sentence to show that the $8 billion added income figure was based
on the unlikely assumption  which it is  that each of the 28
counties that have even a sliver of the Marcellus would see 400 wells by
2015, and therefore the income figure is likely inflated.
Jon Campbell
Correspondent
Gannett Albany Bureau
150 State Street
Albany, NY 12207

Whoops! He's right! My numbers are inflated by 7.5 times.
(Since the study's period, 4 years, goes into 30 years my lifecycle numbers 7.5x).
So I ran the numbers again. Turns out that 400 wells per county average
is a likely number of wells, running counter to Jon's (unsourced) assertion.
Here is my letter to Jon.
Hi Jon,
Thanks Jon... Yes, it looks like I did miss the 4year bit. So let's do some math. I am pretty sure about these numbers:
NY can expect between
42,000 wells and 120,000 Marcellus wells over 30 years.
Divided by 28 counties, this is between
1,500 to 4,400 wells per county AVERAGE over 30 years.
4 years goes into 30 years 7.5 times.
Assuming linear buildout, then
42,000 wells and 120,000 Marcellus wells over 30 years / 7.5 =
5,600 to 16,000 in the first four years statewide.
divided by 28 counties yields 200 570 wells per county.
400 is on the high side of the middle of that.
This is still contrary to your (unsourced) assertion
that 400 wells on average per county is "unlikely".
Jon, 400 wells per county on average IS LIKELY.
Please consider publishing a correction,
or ask your editor to allow me a guest editorial.
Thanks,
BH

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