Monday, September 30, 2013

Ho-hum... the return of the BOGUS Sienna Poll

That Sienna Poll essentially hasn't budged from 44% to 44% in 3 years.
Any poll of New York which does not indicate a SUPER-MAJORITY defies logic and perceptions.
All scientific statements should match observable reality.

The head pollster at Siena is a guy named Steve Greenberg.
Check out his background -> it's PUBLIC RELATIONS! WTF?

The purpose of polling is to LEARN public opinion.
The purpose of Public Relations is to CREATE public opinion.
(Goals are Opposite / Classic Fox Guarding Henhouse)

That Sienna Poll is clearly an Uncalibrated Instrument,
like a radar gun that clocks a turtle going 42 MPH => DOES NOT MATCH OBSERVED REALITY -- NEEDS CALIBRATION.

Here is the FACT-BASED evidence that Siena poll is BULLSHIT:

If a cop clocks a turtle going 42 MPH, he would CALIBRATE HIS RADAR GUN,
because the reading clearly does not match observable reality.
The Siena poll for THREE YEARS have said that NYers are evenly split on fracking.
How come they don't calibrate their instrument?

Why isn't the GROWTH of the local town bans reflected in the Siena Poll?

Why isn't the EXPONENTIAL GROWTH in citizen participation in regulatory process reflected in the Siena Poll?

Because the Siena Poll is BULLSHIT PROPAGANDA, that's why.

The purpose of the Siena Poll is to advance an INDUSTRY agenda to try to marginalize
the NY anti-fracking movement to being less-than-a-majority, which is utterly ridiculous
and DOES NOT MATCH OBSERVABLE FACTS which indicate exponential growth!

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Date: September 30, 2013 8:21:07 AM EDT
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The Power of Words

Today's Siena poll is a mixed bag for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, bringing him good news about the constitutional amendment on casino gambling (not to mention his manipulation of the ballot amendment wording on the subject), but bad news about his own job approval and favorability ratings. 
For the first time ever, Cuomo's job performance rating has slipped just below the magic 50 percent number - a development that comes as he prepares to seek re-election next fall. 
Cuomo saw a slight drop in his favorability rating, a small drop in his "re-elect" number, and a small drop in his job performance rating, bringing him to his lowest level - 49-50, down from 52-46 percent in August - since he took office in January 2011.
The governor is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent (down slightly from 65-30 percent in August). 
He has a 49-50 percent job performance rating (down from 52-46 in August). 
Fifty-two percent say they are prepared to re-elect him, while 39 percent would prefer someone else (down from 55-35 percent last month). 
Cuomo is still doing well (60 percent) among Democrats and New York City voters are prepared to re-elect him, but a plurality of Republicans and independents and a majority of upstaters say they'd prefer someone else in the executive mansion. 
When it comings to casino gambling, New Yorkers remain evenly divided at 46-46, down from 49-42 last month, on whether to allow the expansion of non-Indian run gaming facilities across the state. 
But, when given the specific wording of the amendment on the ballot in November, which plays up the job growth and property tax reduction possibilities of more gambling, voters changed their tune. 
Fifty-five percent said they would vote "yes" on that amendment, compared to 42 percent who said they would not.
"Clearly, the wording on the ballot for the casino amendment matters," Siena pollster Steve Greenberg concluded.
Also, a small majority of voters said they think the amendment is fairly worded, although that depends in part on whether the voters were pro or anti-casino expansion in the first place. 

So far, Cuomo has declined to get involved in the casino amendment push, although some believe he's waiting until the most opportune moment - like, say, the final days of the election season when the most voters are paying attention - to make his mark. 

But from this poll, it appears Cuomo has already done quite enough with his administration's manipulation of the amendment wording - not to mention its placement, which will be No. 1 of the six constitutional questions appearing on the November ballot. 

Meanwhile the pro-casino movement (mostly developers) are largely keeping their powder dry, though they're reportedly willing to spend some $20 million on an ad campaign, and underfunded opponents are relying on grassroots organizing to spread their message. 

The antis did get a boost this weekend when the state's Roman Catholic bishops warned of social problems linked with gambling, although they stopped short of telling New Yorkers how to vote on the amendment on Nov. 5. 
Today's poll also reveals that for the first time in nearly two years, more New Yorkers (46-43) believe the state is heading in the wrong direction than those who believe we're on the right course - not a good trend for the governor as he preps for 2014. 
On the controversial question of fracking, the largest plurality ever in a Siena poll has said "no" to the natural gas drilling technique, with 45 percent opposed and 37 percent in favor. 
Heading into the 2014-15 budget season, voters say by a 53-41 percent margin they would rather see an increase in state spending in areas such as education than a broad-based tax cut. 
However, three-quarters of voters believe a state income tax cut in next year's budget is at least somewhat important.
And last but not least, some not-so-fabulous news for former Gov. Eliot Spitzer if he was perhaps mulling another comeback attempt - maybe a run at state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli? - after he failed NYC comptroller bid this fall. 
At least 62 percent of voters from every region of the state and every party agree that Spitzer should leave his political aspirations on the shelf next year and refrain from seeking statewide office, although he does continue to have a reservoir of support (more than 40 percent) among black and Latino voters. 

Happening Today:


Gov. Andrew Cuomo is in Suffolk County. At 10 a.m., he makes an announcement at Orient Beach State Park, 40,000 Main Road (Rte. 25), Orient.
At 8 a.m., Republican NYC mayoral candidate Joe Lhota will be a guest on 1010WINS, 1010 AM.
From 9 a.m. to 3 p.m., Senate's Standing Committee on Energy and Telecommunications holds a public hearing to discuss the PSC's review of Indian Point, 250 Broadway, 19th floor, Manhattan.
Activists from the group Shut Down Indian Point Now! hold a demonstration outside 250 Broadway while that hearing is taking place.
At 9:45 a.m., AG Eric Schneiderman will announce a new settlement to resolve abuses against New York borrowers during his keynote address at the PEF Conference, Buffalo Niagara Convention Center
, 153 Franklin St., Buffalo.
At 10:30 a.m., Independence Party mayoral candidate Adolfo Carrion will announce the launch of his Campaign for New York's High-Tech Future and the new integrated mobile application MyCity Pass, City Hall Park, Manhattan.
At 11 a.m., NYC Democratic mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio tours the early childhood education program at Children's Aid Society and discusses his plan for universal pre-k, 130 East 101st St., Manhattan.
Also at 11 a.m., EPA Regional Administrator Judith Enck, Rep. Nydia Velazquez and other officials discuss efforts to remove pollution from the Gowanus Canal, a federal Superfund site; northeast corner of the Lowe's parking lot, 118 Second Ave., Brooklyn.
At noon, the state Board of Elections meets and is expected to consider taking on Kathleen O'Keefe, a former top aide to Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, as its enforcement counsel, 40 N. Pearl St., Albany.
At 12:30 p.m., Brooklyn Democrats will hold a "unity" rally for DA candidate Kenneth Thompson, Brooklyn Borough Hall steps.
At 4:30 p.m., Lhota will attend a CUNY board meeting, Baruch Preforming Arts Center, 55th Lexington Ave., Manhattan.
At 6:30 p.m., Lhota will host a tele-town hall with New York City residents and hear about the important issues facing their communities. (Dial in information available from the campaign).
Last Friday's Show:

- Members of our Reporter Roundtable - the AP's Mike Gormley, the TU's Rick Karlin and CapTon's own Nick Reisman - reviewed the week's headlines.

Topics of discussion included the latest exchanges between the governor's anti-corruption Moreland Commission and the Legislature and the arrest of former Met Council Executive Director Willie Rapfogel and its potential impact on Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. 

- Democratic activist Sean Eldridge came into the studio for his first CapTon interview since formally announcing his 2014 challenge to GOP Rep. Chris Gibson in Ny-19 next fall. 

- NYC Business Council President and CEO Heather Briccetti dropped by following the close of her organization's annual conference at the Sagamore in Bolton Landing, and also to discuss a new initiative - the Upstate Futurist Project. 

Coming Up On CapTon: 

- Former NYC Mayor David Dinkins discusses his new memoir, "A Mayor's Life: Governing New York's Gorgeous Mosaic," and perhaps also weighs in on the current race for his old job. 

- Three men who played key roles in the 2008 and 2012 Obama campaigns - David Axelrod, David Plouffe and Jon Favreau - spoke at UAlbany Saturday night in a forum moderated by yours truly. Prior to their formal remarks, they sat down for a CapTon interview on the looming government shutdown, 2016 and more. 

- Siena pollster Steve Greenberg drops by for a more in-depth review of the latest numbers on Cuomo, casino gambling, fracking, Eliot Spitzer and the 2014-15 budget. 

...And On NY1's "Road to City Hall":

- Errol Louis interviews the NYC public advocate candidates - Councilwoman Tish James and Sen. Daniel Squadron - in advance of tomorrow's runoff election. 


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