Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Missing Teachout Votes? Low turnout? Check my math...

One thing I like to do is Numerical Analysis.
It's just for fun.
I have no credentials.

But I like to crunch numbers.
Just look at the numbers,
graph them, and look for patterns.
Anyone can do this.

I know it may seem like a strange hobby.

SO-- I've first gotta admit, what started me on this journey of number crunching is to see if there is a winning strategy for Howie Hawkins in November.

Then I discovered something strange in the data concerning the recent Democratic Primary.
What looks like LOW TURNOUT.

So in the 2010 Republican Primary,
479,684 people showed up to vote for
either Carl Paladino or Rick Lazio.
Was that some hot race?
Maybe it was.

According to the NYS 2006 BOE(*), there are
3,130,122 registered Republicans, and 5,507,920 Democrats.
So that's about a 15% turnout.
(* source: Wikipedia)

That same year 19,051 Conservative Party members
voted in the primary, out of 154,202 total. That's 12%.

Are you tracking me so far?

Now in a HOTLY contested race, with a huge grassroots
Get-out-the-vote for Zephyr Teachout using social media
and a whirlwind statewide tour-- 549,877 people voted.
That's only 9%, OF THE 5,910,140 registered Dems in 2014.

So that is LOW TURNOUT according to Republican standards.
Very surprising to me.
If the Republicans can turn out 15% for Paladino vs. Lazio,
don't you think the very motivated anti-fracking
and Progressive Democrats couldn't muster 20%
for Teachout v. Cuomo?  I WOULD.

Could there be 20% (expected) - 9% (reported) = 11% missing votes for Teachout?

20% of 5,910,140 = 1,182,026(expected) - 594,877 (voted) = possible 643,151 missing votes

Cuomo statewide totals: 329,492
Teachout statewide totals: 181,904
Credico statewide totals: 19,018
Blank, Void, Writein: 19,463
Total votes: 549,877 (9% low turnout)

possible missing votes: 643,151 (remaining 11% of 20% expected)

May you, and all beings
be happy and free from suffering :)
-- ancient Buddhist Prayer (Metta)

Don't forget to sign the
Pledge to Resist
the Constitution Pipeline:

No comments: